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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Carries
Player Prop Week 10

Los Angeles Chargers vs Tennessee Titans

Justin Herbert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-165/+135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +135.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chargers are an enormous 8-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to run on 45.9% of their plays: the 8th-highest rate on the slate this week.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.5 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The 9th-fewest plays in the NFL have been run by the Chargers this year (only 55.4 per game on average).

Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) typically correlate with increased passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and lower run volume.

Justin Herbert has been a much smaller part of his team's rushing attack this year (7.4% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (14.1%).

The Tennessee defensive tackles profile as the 3rd-best DT corps in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

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