Justin Herbert Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Justin Herbert

NFL · Player Props

Justin Herbert

QB · Los Angeles Chargers

Carries

New York Jets vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 7, 2023 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Justin Herbert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-103/-133).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -127 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Chargers offensive strategy to skew 2.4% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
This week's line suggests a rushing game script for the Chargers, who are favored by 3 points.
The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Chargers to run on 40.8% of their chances: the lowest rate among all teams this week.
The Chargers O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL last year at opening holes for runners.
The New York defensive tackles rank as the 8th-best group of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to run defense.

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