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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Carries
Player Prop Week 8

Los Angeles Chargers vs Chicago Bears

Justin Herbert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+130/-160).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +140 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +130.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chargers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

The Chargers are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.

Right now, the 2nd-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Chargers.

This week, Justin Herbert is predicted by the projection model to notch the 7th-most carries among all quarterbacks with 4.5.

Comprising 14.1% of his offense's carries this year (75th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks), Justin Herbert's mobility marks him as a major threat in Los Angeles's rushing attack.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

At the present time, the 6th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL (35.4% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Chargers.

Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) generally prompt better passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume.

The Chargers offensive line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL last year at blocking for the run game.

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