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Justin Herbert

Justin Herbert Carries
Player Prop Week 7

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers

Justin Herbert Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+105/-140).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +120 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chargers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are projected by the predictive model to run 66.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.

The model projects Justin Herbert to accrue 4.6 carries in this week's game, on average: the 7th-most out of all quarterbacks.

After taking on 9.7% of his offense's rush attempts last season, Justin Herbert has played a bigger part in the running game this season, currently taking on 16.0%.

The Chiefs safeties grade out as the 28th-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year in regard to defending the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chargers are a 5.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to run on 37.4% of their downs: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

When talking about blocking for ball-carriers (and the importance it has on all run game stats), the offensive line of the Chargers profiles as the 4th-worst in the NFL last year.

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