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Justin Fields

Justin Fields TD Passes
Player Prop Week 5

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Dallas Cowboys

Justin Fields TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+180/-240).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +185 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +180.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this contest is predicted by the projections to see 131.5 total plays run: the highest number out of all the games this week.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 3rd-most plays in football this year, averaging a staggering 61.2 plays per game.

Justin Fields's 69.6% Adjusted Completion% this season illustrates a noteworthy growth in his passing precision over last season's 61.9% figure.

When it comes to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Dallas's unit has been easily exploitable this year, grading out as the 5th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The projections expect the Pittsburgh Steelers as the least pass-focused offense among all teams this week with a 46.0% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Steelers to be the 6th-least pass-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 48.8% red zone pass rate.

Our trusted projections expect Justin Fields to attempt 27.1 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 3rd-fewest among all quarterbacks.

Opposing QBs have completed passes at the 3rd-lowest level in the league against the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season (65.4% Adjusted Completion%).

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