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Justin Fields

Justin Fields TD Passes
Player Prop Week 4

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Justin Fields TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-220/+165).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Steelers are forecasted by the projection model to call 65.9 total plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number on the slate this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
  • Justin Fields's passing precision has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 61.9% to 72.0%.
  • The Colts defensive ends profile as the 5th-worst group of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to rushing the passer.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the Steelers to be the 2nd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The leading projections forecast the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 4th-least pass-focused team in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 47.3% red zone pass rate.
  • In this game, Justin Fields is predicted by the model to total the 8th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 29.7.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 10th-fewest in the league.
  • When it comes to pocket protection (and the influence it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

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