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Justin Fields

Justin Fields TD Passes
Player Prop Week 1

Atlanta Falcons vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Justin Fields TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+220/-305).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Pittsburgh Steelers are predicted by the projection model to run 65.5 plays on offense in this contest: the 10th-most among all teams this week.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Atlanta's unit has been terrible last year, ranking as the 4th-worst in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Steelers to pass on 52.8% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest frequency on the slate this week.

The predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 6th-least pass-heavy team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 51.0% red zone pass rate.

The Steelers have run the 7th-fewest plays in football last year, averaging a mere 55.8 plays per game.

The predictive model expects Justin Fields to attempt 31.1 passes in this week's game, on balance: the fewest among all QBs.

The Steelers O-line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL last year in pass protection, which has a harmful effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.

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