Justin Fields TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

TD Passes

Chicago Bears vs Denver Broncos · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 9:41 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-270/+200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -270 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The Broncos cornerbacks profile as the worst group of CBs in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 50.2% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The model projects the Bears as the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 54.2% red zone pass rate.
The model projects this game to have the 2nd-lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 121.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Bears have called the fewest plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 52.9 plays per game.
The leading projections forecast Justin Fields to attempt 27.8 passes this week, on average: the fewest of all QBs.

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