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Justin Fields

Justin Fields TD Passes
Player Prop Week 16

Chicago Bears vs Arizona Cardinals

Justin Fields TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+145/-195).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -175 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -195.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 60.1% rate of throwing the ball near the goal line (context-neutralized) this year, the 7th-most pass-oriented offense in the NFL in these cases has been the Bears.

Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-highest clip in the NFL vs. the Cardinals defense this year (73.6% Adjusted Completion%).

The Arizona Cardinals defense has been torched for the 3rd-most passing TDs in the NFL: 1.86 per game this year.

As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Arizona's group of CBs has been lousy this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 4.5-point advantage, the Bears are favored in this game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their normal approach.

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Bears to pass on 48.2% of their plays: the lowest clip among all teams this week.

The model projects this game to have the 5th-lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.7 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The predictive model expects Justin Fields to attempt 27.5 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 2nd-fewest out of all QBs.

Opposing QBs have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year: 4th-fewest in football.

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