Justin Fields TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

TD Passes

Cleveland Browns vs Chicago Bears · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 3:41 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-225/+165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ +170 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ +165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Chicago Bears to be the 10th-most pass-focused team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 57.9% red zone pass rate.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 48.5% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The leading projections forecast the Bears offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 28.87 seconds per play.
The model projects Justin Fields to attempt 27.6 passes this week, on balance: the fewest among all QBs.
Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to test the pass defense of the Cleveland Browns, totaling the fewest attempts in the league (a measly 29.9 per game) this year.
This year, the formidable Browns defense has yielded a mere 61.8% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the smallest rate in football.

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