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Justin Fields

Justin Fields TD Passes
Player Prop Week 8

Dallas Cowboys vs Chicago Bears

Justin Fields TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-240/+180).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -215 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -240.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bears are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Opposing QBs have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.

The Chicago Bears offensive line has afforded their QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

The Chicago Bears have gone for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.62 seconds per snap.

THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to attempt 29.7 passes in this game, on average: the 3rd-least of all quarterbacks.

The Chicago Bears O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

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