Justin Fields TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

TD Passes

Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 14, 2022 2:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-250/+185).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -185 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -250.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Washington Commanders defense has allowed the 3rd-most passing TDs in football: 2.20 per game this year.
The Washington Commanders cornerbacks profile as the 2nd-worst unit in football this year in covering receivers.
The Chicago Bears O-line has allowed their QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Chicago Bears have gone for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which generally means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 45.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 49.2 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to attempt 26.2 passes in this game, on average: the least of all quarterbacks.

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