Justin Fields TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

TD Passes

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+210/-286).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -278 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -286.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Detroit Lions defense this year: 6th-most in football.
Justin Fields's throwing precision has improved this season, with his Completion% increasing from 60.3% to 64.5%.
The Detroit Lions defense has given up the 6th-most TDs through the air in football: 1.60 per game this year.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 47.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to attempt 27.8 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 2nd-least of all quarterbacks.

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