Justin Fields Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 6:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 63.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 59.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 63.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 51.8% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
In this game, Justin Fields is anticipated by the model to total the most rush attempts among all quarterbacks with 10.7.
The predictive model expects Justin Fields to be much more involved in his offense's ground game in this week's contest (33.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (28.6% in games he has played).
When it comes to run-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all run game stats), the offensive line of the Bears profiles as the 9th-best in the league last year.

Favors Under

The Bears are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bears are predicted by the predictive model to call only 61.8 offensive plays in this contest: the lowest number among all teams this week.
Justin Fields has rushed for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (50.0) this year than he did last year (73.0).
Justin Fields's ground effectiveness has diminished this season, averaging just 5.52 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 7.34 figure last season.
This year, the feeble Detroit Lions run defense has been gouged for a massive 3.82 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing teams: the 29th-biggest rate in the NFL.

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