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Justin Fields

Justin Fields Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 14

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions

 
 
 
Justin Fields Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 63.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 59.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 63.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The projections expect the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-most run-centric team among all teams this week with a 51.8% run rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • In this game, Justin Fields is anticipated by the model to total the most rush attempts among all quarterbacks with 10.7.
  • The predictive model expects Justin Fields to be much more involved in his offense's ground game in this week's contest (33.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (28.6% in games he has played).
  • When it comes to run-blocking (and the ramifications it has on all run game stats), the offensive line of the Bears profiles as the 9th-best in the league last year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Bears are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Bears are predicted by the predictive model to call only 61.8 offensive plays in this contest: the lowest number among all teams this week.
  • Justin Fields has rushed for a lot fewer adjusted yards per game (50.0) this year than he did last year (73.0).
  • Justin Fields's ground effectiveness has diminished this season, averaging just 5.52 adjusted yards-per-carry compared to a 7.34 figure last season.
  • This year, the feeble Detroit Lions run defense has been gouged for a massive 3.82 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC) to opposing teams: the 29th-biggest rate in the NFL.

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