Justin Fields Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 28, 2023 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 58.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 51.5 @ -127 before it was bet up to 58.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Chicago Bears to run on 47.9% of their plays: the 3rd-greatest rate on the slate this week.
In racking up a whopping 9.0 rush attempts per game this year, Justin Fields ranks among the top QBs in football (97th percentile) in regards to running utilization.
Accounting for 27.6% of his team's carries this year (93rd percentile among QBs), Justin Fields's mobility makes him a significant threat with his legs.
The Bears O-line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL last year at opening holes for runners.
Justin Fields comes in as one of the leading quarterbacks in the NFL at generating extra rushing yardage, averaging an outstanding 2.98 yards-after-contact this year while ranking in the 79th percentile.

Favors Under

This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Bears, who are -3-point underdogs.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Bears are expected by our trusted projection set to run just 62.5 total plays in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Justin Fields's 48.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year represents a noteworthy diminishment in his running talent over last year's 73.0 figure.
Justin Fields's 5.36 adjusted yards per carry (YPC) this year marks a significant decrease in his rushing talent over last year's 7.34 figure.

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