Justin Fields Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 48.5 (-130/+100).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 48.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 48.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 4th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 47.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to accrue 10.0 carries in this game, on average: the 2nd-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to be a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack this week (32.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (13.9% in games he has played).
The Chicago Bears O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year at blocking for rushers.

Favors Under

The Bears are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.62 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

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