Justin Fields Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 13, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 43.5 (-130/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 42.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 43.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to notch 8.1 carries in this week's contest, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to be a much bigger part of his team's running game this week (23.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (10.6% in games he has played).
Justin Fields has generated 37.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest marks in the NFL among quarterbacks (85th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 49.2 plays per game.
Justin Fields's ground effectiveness has diminished this year, totaling a measly 5.01 yards-per-carry compared to a 5.92 figure last year.
The Washington Commanders defense has had the 10th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering just 4.32 yards-per-carry.
The Washington Commanders linebackers project as the 7th-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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