Justin Fields Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

New York Giants vs Chicago Bears · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:20 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 39.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 37.5 @ -108 before it was bet up to 39.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 6.2% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 53.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to accumulate 7.8 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to be much more involved in his offense's rushing attack this week (22.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (14.4% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Bears are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.
The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season at run-game blocking.
Justin Fields's running efficiency has diminished this season, accumulating a measly 4.28 yards-per-carry vs a 5.92 figure last season.

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