Justin Fields Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:55 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 36.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.3% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to accumulate 7.2 rush attempts in this contest, on average: the 4th-most of all QBs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 7th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.26 seconds per snap.
The Chicago Bears offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
Justin Fields's rushing efficiency has worsened this season, averaging just 3.04 yards-per-carry vs a 5.92 figure last season.

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