Justin Fields Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 19, 2022 12:05 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 40.5 (-130/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 35.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 40.5 @ -130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 6th-most run-heavy team on the slate this week with a 45.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to earn 6.9 rush attempts in this week's game, on average: the least of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to be a much bigger part of his team's running game this week (25.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (9.7% in games he has played).
Justin Fields has grinded out 33.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among QBs (89th percentile).

Favors Under

The Bears are a big 10-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the 3rd-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 59.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Chicago Bears offensive line profiles as the 9th-worst in the league since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.
Justin Fields's rushing effectiveness has diminished this season, compiling just 3.60 yards-per-carry vs a 5.92 rate last season.

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