Justin Fields Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Buffalo Bills · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 24, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 74.5 (-144/+112).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 71.5 @ -116 before it was bet up to 74.5 @ -144.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 6.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 57.7% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 23-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to accumulate 14.3 carries in this contest, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to be much more involved in his team's rushing attack this week (39.4% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (19.4% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Bears are a big 8.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-least plays run out of all the games this week at 124.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 4th-least plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 53.9 plays per game.
Opposing teams have run for the 4th-least yards in the NFL (just 105 per game) vs. the Buffalo Bills defense this year.
The Buffalo Bills have stacked the box vs. opponents on 19.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.