Justin Fields Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Rushing Yards

Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Justin Fields Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 73.5 (-140/-105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 70.5 @ -125 before it was bet up to 73.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 7.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to garner 11.5 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to be much more involved in his offense's running game this week (34.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (16.6% in games he has played).
Justin Fields has rushed for significantly more yards per game (72.0) this year than he did last year (33.0).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.1 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

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