Justin Fields Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Rushing TD

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+181/-266).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +193 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +181.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 4th-most run-centric team in the league near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 49.9% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to be a more integral piece of his offense's running game near the end zone this week (32.2% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (19.0% in games he has played).
The Chicago Bears offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in football this year at opening holes for runners.
Justin Fields has rushed for 0.38 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in the NFL among quarterbacks (95th percentile).
Opposing teams have rushed for the 8th-most touchdowns in the NFL (1.12 per game) versus the Miami Dolphins defense this year.

Favors Under

The Bears are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run out of all the games this week at 123.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box against opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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