Justin Fields Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Rushing TD

New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 24, 2022 11:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+269/-452).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -429 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -452.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 4th-most run-centric team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 48.3% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to be a more important option in his team's run game near the goal line this week (24.7% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (14.3% in games he has played).
The Chicago Bears O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year at blocking for rushers.
The New England Patriots defensive tackles grade out as the 7th-worst collection of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.
The Chicago Bears have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in football. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Bears are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 52.0 plays per game.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 2nd-least TDs in the NFL (0.33 per game) vs. the New England Patriots defense this year.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.