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Justin Fields

Justin Fields Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 5

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

Justin Fields Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+278/-475).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -377 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -475.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 49.3% red zone run rate.

Justin Fields isn't afraid to call his own number near the goal line, accounting for 19.0% of his [OFFENSE_TEAMS]'s red zone carries this year (77th percentile among quarterbacks).

The Chicago Bears offensive line ranks as the 10th-best in the NFL this year at blocking for the run game.

Justin Fields has run for 0.25 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in the NFL among QBs (83rd percentile).

Opposing squads have rushed for the 2nd-most touchdowns in the league (1.75 per game) against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bears are a giant 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.

The Minnesota Vikings defensive tackles profile as the 4th-best collection of DTs in football this year when it comes to run defense.

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