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Justin Fields

Justin Fields Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 3

Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans

Justin Fields Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+237/-377).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +242 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +237.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-most run-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 47.9% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to be a much bigger part of his offense's running game near the end zone this week (24.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (13.3% in games he has played).

Justin Fields has run for 0.21 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest marks in the league among QBs (87th percentile).

Opposing teams have run for the 2nd-most touchdowns in the NFL (1.37 per game) against the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 7th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.26 seconds per snap.

The Chicago Bears offensive line ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

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