Justin Fields Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Rushing TD

Chicago Bears vs Philadelphia Eagles · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:11 AM EST

Analysis

Justin Fields Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+162/-223).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -155 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -223.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 3rd-most run-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 51.2% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to be a much bigger part of his team's run game near the goal line this week (37.4% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (21.0% in games he has played).
The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 9th-best in the league this year at run-game blocking.
Justin Fields has run for 0.67 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in the NFL among QBs (100th percentile).
The Chicago Bears have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Bears are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the moment, averaging 29.42 seconds per play.
The Philadelphia Eagles defensive ends rank as the best DE corps in football this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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