Justin Fields Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Rushing TD

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+131/-177).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -143 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -177.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 3rd-most run-heavy offense in the league near the end zone (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 50.5% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to be a much bigger part of his team's running game near the goal line this week (35.9% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (21.7% in games he has played).
The Chicago Bears O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year at run-game blocking.
Justin Fields has rushed for 0.64 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the largest marks in football among QBs (100th percentile).
The Green Bay Packers linebackers rank as the 5th-worst unit in the NFL this year with their run defense.

Favors Under

The Bears are a massive 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 7th-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.0 plays per game.

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