Justin Fields Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Rushing TD

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 5:31 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Fields Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+130/-177).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +139 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 3rd-most run-centric team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) right now with a 49.8% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to be a more important option in his offense's running game near the goal line this week (30.5% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (18.0% in games he has played).
Justin Fields has run for 0.44 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest marks in the NFL among QBs (95th percentile).
Opposing squads have rushed for the 2nd-most touchdowns in football (1.50 per game) versus the Detroit Lions defense this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.

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