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Justin Fields

Justin Fields Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 1

Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers

Justin Fields Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+275/-467).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -459 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -467.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bears have been the 9th-most run-centric offense in football near the goal line (context-neutralized) since the start of last season with a 46.8% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to be a much bigger part of his team's run game near the goal line this week (29.3% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (7.3% in games he has played).

Justin Fields has run for 0.17 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the highest figures in the league among QBs (76th percentile).

The Chicago Bears have faced a stacked the box on a measly 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Chicago Bears have gone for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season at opening holes for runners.

The San Francisco 49ers linebackers profile as the 2nd-best unit in football since the start of last season in regard to run defense.

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