Justin Fields Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Passing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 9, 2023 6:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 201.5 (-113/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 202.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 201.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 3-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
Justin Fields's 190.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year conveys a remarkable improvement in his throwing ability over last year's 149.0 figure.
This year, the poor Lions defense has yielded the 8th-most adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to the opposing side: a whopping 7.96 yards.
The Lions safeties rank as the 4th-worst group of safeties in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

Favors Under

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bears to pass on 47.5% of their chances: the lowest frequency among all teams this week.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the projections to have just 123.9 total plays run: the fewest among all games this week.
The weather report calls for 15-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing effectiveness.
In this week's contest, Justin Fields is expected by the predictive model to wind up with the 4th-fewest pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 26.5.
The Chicago Bears offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing game metrics across the board.

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