Justin Fields Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Passing Yards

Dallas Cowboys vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 8:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 159.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game versus the Dallas Cowboys defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has been vulnerable when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, allowing an average of 6.67 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 8th-most in the league.
The Chicago Bears offensive line has afforded their QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.62 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to attempt 29.7 passes in this game, on average: the 3rd-least of all quarterbacks.
The Chicago Bears O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

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