Justin Fields Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Passing Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 164.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a giant 7.5-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 10th-most in football.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 3rd-highest level in the league vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense this year (75.5%).
The Minnesota Vikings defense has not been good when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, yielding an average of 8.12 yards-after-the-catch this year: the 5th-most in football.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 5.3% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 4th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 52.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense as the 6th-slowest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.41 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to attempt 30.3 passes in this week's contest, on average: the least of all QBs.
The Chicago Bears O-line grades out as the 3rd-worst in the NFL this year in pass protection, which has a harmful impact on all air attack statistics across the board.

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