Justin Fields Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Passing Yards

Chicago Bears vs Houston Texans · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 4:35 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Fields Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 169.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing QBs have thrown for the 9th-most yards in football (247.0 per game) vs. the Houston Texans defense since the start of last season.
The Houston Texans pass defense has exhibited poor efficiency since the start of last season, yielding 8.42 yards-per-target: the 4th-most in the league.
The Houston Texans safeties project as the worst safety corps in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Chicago Bears O-line has allowed their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a strong impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Chicago Bears have elected to go for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 44.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 7th-most sluggish paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the moment, averaging 28.26 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 18-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.