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Justin Fields

Justin Fields Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 13

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers

Justin Fields Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 166.5 (+120/-166).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 167.5 @ -117 before it was bet down to 166.5 @ -166.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bears are a massive 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-highest rate in the league against the Green Bay Packers defense this year (73.8%).

The Green Bay Packers pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency this year, giving up 8.21 yards-per-target: the 7th-most in football.

The Green Bay Packers safeties profile as the worst collection of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.

The Chicago Bears O-line has allowed their QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 8.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 39.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Chicago Bears have run the 7th-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.0 plays per game.

The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.

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