Justin Fields Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Passing Yards

Chicago Bears vs San Francisco 49ers · Week 1, 2022

Updated Sep 11, 2022 11:34 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Fields Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 183.5 (+105/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 194.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 183.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 10th-highest rate in the NFL against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season (71.9%).
The Chicago Bears O-line has allowed their QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Chicago Bears have gone for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the league), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 53.6% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to run the 2nd-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 58.9 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to attempt 29.4 passes in this contest, on average: the 4th-least of all QBs.
Opposing offenses have averaged 31.1 pass attempts per game against the San Francisco 49ers defense since the start of last season: 5th-least in football.
Justin Fields has been among the bottom QBs in the league since the start of last season, averaging 161.0 yards per game while grading out in the 9th percentile.

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