Justin Fields Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Pass Attempts

Chicago Bears vs Detroit Lions · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 13, 2022 5:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-105/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 24.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 25.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.0 pass attempts per game against the Detroit Lions defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
The Chicago Bears have risked going for it on 4th down 27.3% of the time since the start of last season (3rd-most in the league), which usually means more offensive volume, more TD potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
The Bears are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 39.7% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 126.6 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the 8th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 55.9 plays per game.

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