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Justin Fields

Justin Fields Interceptions
Player Prop Week 9

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins

Justin Fields Interceptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-137/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -135 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -137.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bears are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

The Miami Dolphins have intercepted 0.54 targets per game this year, ranking as the 9th-worst defense in the NFL by this stat

The Miami Dolphins cornerbacks profile as the 5th-worst CB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

The Chicago Bears O-line has given their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.

The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box against opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 41.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run out of all the games this week at 123.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.

The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

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