Justin Fields Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Pittsburgh Steelers

Completions

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 4, 2024

Updated Sep 29, 2024 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Fields Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (+125/-170).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 17.5 @ -170.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Steelers are forecasted by the projection model to call 65.9 total plays in this contest: the 7th-highest number on the slate this week.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Justin Fields's passing precision has improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 61.9% to 72.0%.
The Colts defensive ends profile as the 5th-worst group of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to rushing the passer.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Steelers to be the 2nd-least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 50.0% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
In this game, Justin Fields is predicted by the model to total the 8th-fewest pass attempts out of all quarterbacks with 29.7.
Opposing offenses have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense since the start of last season: 10th-fewest in the league.
When it comes to pocket protection (and the influence it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Pittsburgh Steelers profiles as the 3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season.

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