Justin Fields Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Completions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Chicago Bears · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Fields Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (+107/-139).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -137 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -139.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are an enormous 12.5-point underdog in this game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Opposing teams have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the NFL.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 8th-highest level in the NFL vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense since the start of last season (72.6%).
The Kansas City Chiefs linebackers grade out as the 9th-worst group of LBs in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 6th-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 53.6% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 3rd-slowest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.10 seconds per play.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to attempt 30.4 passes in this game, on average: the 3rd-least of all quarterbacks.
Justin Fields has been among the least on-target passers in the NFL this year with a 60.3% Completion%, ranking in the 22nd percentile.

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