Justin Fields Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Completions

Chicago Bears vs Miami Dolphins · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 8:31 PM EST

Analysis

Justin Fields Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 14.5 (-102/-128).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 14.5 @ -128.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bears are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
The Miami Dolphins cornerbacks profile as the 5th-worst CB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Chicago Bears O-line has given their quarterback 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in football since the start of last season), which has a strong effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box against opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 7.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the least pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 41.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the least plays run out of all the games this week at 123.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling just 54.8 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 17-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

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