Justin Fields Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Completions

Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (+106/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 15.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 15.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
Opposing QBs have averaged 38.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 4th-most in the league.
The Atlanta Falcons linebackers profile as the 5th-worst collection of LBs in the NFL this year in regard to rushing the passer.
The Chicago Bears O-line has afforded their QB 2.51 seconds before getting pressured (10th-best in the league since the start of last season), which has a positive effect on all passing attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 7.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 46.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.1 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to attempt 26.3 passes this week, on average: the 2nd-least of all quarterbacks.

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