Justin Fields Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Carries

Washington Commanders vs Chicago Bears · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 5, 2023 11:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (+106/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bears to run on 48.6% of their downs: the 2nd-highest frequency among all teams this week.
In this contest, Justin Fields is projected by our trusted projection set to earn the 4th-most carries among all quarterbacks with 7.9.
The Bears offensive line ranks as the 9th-best in the NFL last year at blocking for the run game.
The Washington Commanders linebackers rank as the 3rd-worst group of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

The Bears are a 6-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
The projections expect the Bears to run the 3rd-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 60.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Bears have called the 10th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling a measly 55.8 plays per game.
After accounting for 30.9% of his team's carries last year, Justin Fields has had a smaller role in the rushing attack this year, currently accounting for just 22.2%.

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