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Justin Fields

Justin Fields Carries
Player Prop Week 8

Dallas Cowboys vs Chicago Bears

Justin Fields Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 8.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 8.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 8.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 4th-most run-centric offense on the slate this week with a 47.5% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to accrue 10.0 carries in this game, on average: the 2nd-most of all QBs.

THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to be a much bigger part of his offense's rushing attack this week (32.6% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (13.9% in games he has played).

The Chicago Bears O-line profiles as the 7th-best in the league this year at blocking for rushers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bears are a big 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.62 seconds per snap.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

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