Justin Fields Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Carries

New England Patriots vs Chicago Bears · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 24, 2022 11:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-118/-122).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 4.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 50.2% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to notch 7.0 rush attempts in this week's game, on average: the 2nd-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to be a more integral piece of his offense's rushing attack this week (22.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (10.1% in games he has played).
The Chicago Bears O-line profiles as the 10th-best in football this year at blocking for rushers.

Favors Under

The Bears are a giant 8.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Bears to call the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 61.4 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 52.0 plays per game.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The New England Patriots have stacked the box against opponents on 19.9% of their plays since the start of last season, 7th-most in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

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