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Justin Fields

Justin Fields Carries
Player Prop Week 6

Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders

 
 
 
Justin Fields Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -160.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to notch 8.1 carries in this week's contest, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.
  • THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to be a much bigger part of his team's running game this week (23.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (10.6% in games he has played).
  • The Chicago Bears have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 49.2 plays per game.
  • The Washington Commanders linebackers project as the 7th-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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