Justin Fields Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Carries

Chicago Bears vs Washington Commanders · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 13, 2022 11:16 PM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-160/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 7.5 @ -145 before it was bet up to 7.5 @ -160.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 5.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 54.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to notch 8.1 carries in this week's contest, on average: the 3rd-most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to be a much bigger part of his team's running game this week (23.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (10.6% in games he has played).
The Chicago Bears have been faced with a stacked the box on a mere 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-smallest volume of plays run among all games this week at 127.6 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have called the least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 49.2 plays per game.
The Washington Commanders linebackers project as the 7th-best collection of LBs in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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