Justin Fields Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Carries

Detroit Lions vs Chicago Bears · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 2, 2023 1:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-103/-127).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ +104 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -103.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears will have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 7.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears as the 2nd-most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 52.4% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to total 12.2 carries in this game, on average: the most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to be a more integral piece of his offense's running game this week (36.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (19.2% in games he has played).
The Chicago Bears offensive line grades out as the 9th-best in the NFL this year in run blocking.

Favors Under

The Bears are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this week's game, indicating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 4th-least plays run on the slate this week at 127.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 53.9 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

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