Justin Fields Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Carries

Chicago Bears vs Green Bay Packers · Week 13, 2022

Updated Dec 5, 2022 12:46 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 12.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 11.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 8.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (adjusted for context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the most run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 60.3% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to earn 13.2 carries in this week's contest, on average: the most of all QBs.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to be a more important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (35.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (18.4% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Bears are a massive 7.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 121.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 7th-least plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.0 plays per game.

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