My Account Log Out
 
 
Justin Fields

Justin Fields Carries
Player Prop Week 11

Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Justin Fields Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ +107 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -114.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 7.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
  • THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to garner 11.5 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.
  • THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to be much more involved in his offense's running game this week (34.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (16.6% in games he has played).
  • The Chicago Bears have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.1 plays per game.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2022 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™