Justin Fields Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Justin Fields

NFL · Player Props

Justin Fields

QB · Chicago Bears

Carries

Atlanta Falcons vs Chicago Bears · Week 11, 2022

Updated Nov 21, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Justin Fields Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 11.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ +107 before it was bet up to 11.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chicago Bears boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Luke Getsy, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to skew 7.4% more towards rushing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Chicago Bears to be the 2nd-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 53.3% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to garner 11.5 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the 2nd-most of all quarterbacks.
THE BLITZ projects Justin Fields to be much more involved in his offense's running game this week (34.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (16.6% in games he has played).
The Chicago Bears have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 14.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 10th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 122.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Chicago Bears have run the 5th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a lowly 55.1 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

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