Justice Hill Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Justice Hill

NFL · Player Props

Justice Hill

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 11:11 PM EST

Analysis

Justice Hill Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 29.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 33.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 29.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

With a 9.5-point advantage, the Ravens are a huge favorite this week, implying much more of a focus on running than their standard approach.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Baltimore Ravens to run on 48.2% of their downs: the 2nd-highest clip among all teams this week.
Justice Hill has been a more integral piece of his offense's ground game this season (22.2% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last season (11.1%).
Justice Hill has rushed for significantly more adjusted yards per game (35.0) this season than he did last season (19.0).
Justice Hill's rushing efficiency (5.10 adjusted yards per carry) has been some of the best in football this year (89th percentile among RBs).

Favors Under

Our trusted projections expect the Ravens offensive blueprint to lean 3.2% more towards the passing attack than it did last year (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Todd Monken now calling the plays.
The model projects the Ravens offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.13 seconds per snap.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

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